Report: AI Will Replace 2.4 Million US Jobs by 2030
“The result was lower wages, not fewer drivers.
AI could replace equivalent of 300 million jobs – report
It could replace a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe but may also mean new jobs and a productivity boom.
And it could eventually increase the total annual value of goods and services produced globally by 7%.
Generative AI, able to create content indistinguishable from human work, is “a major advancement”, the report says.
Employment prospects
The government is keen to promote investment in AI in the UK, which it says will “ultimately drive productivity across the economy”, and has tried to reassure the public about its impact.
“We want to make sure that AI is complementing the way we work in the UK, not disrupting it – making our jobs better, rather than taking them away,” Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan told the Sun.
The report notes AI’s impact will vary across different sectors – 46% of tasks in administrative and 44% in legal professions could be automated but only 6% in construction 4% in maintenance, it says.
BBC News has previously reported some artists’ concerns AI image generators could harm their employment prospects.
‘Lower wages’
“The only thing I am sure of is that there is no way of knowing how many jobs will be replaced by generative AI,” Carl Benedikt Frey, future of-work director at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, told BBC News.
“What ChatGPT does, for example, is allow more people with average writing skills to produce essays and articles.
“Journalists will therefore face more competition, which would drive down wages, unless we see a very significant increase in the demand for such work.
“Consider the introduction of GPS technology and platforms like Uber. Suddenly, knowing all the streets in London had much less value – and so incumbent drivers experienced large wage cuts in response, of around 10% according to our research.
“The result was lower wages, not fewer drivers.
“Over the next few years, generative AI is likely to have similar effects on a broader set of creative tasks”.
‘Pinch of salt’
According to research cited by the report, 60% of workers are in occupations that did not exist in 1940.
But other research suggests technological change since the 1980s has displaced workers faster than it has created jobs.
And if generative AI is like previous information-technology advances, the report concludes, it could reduce employment in the near term.
The long-term impact of AI, however, was highly uncertain, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank Torsten Bell told BBC News, “so all firm predictions should be taken with a very large pinch of salt”.
“We do not know how the technology will evolve or how firms will integrate it into how they work,” he said.
“That’s not to say that AI won’t disrupt the way we work – but we should focus too on the potential living-standards gains from higher-productivity work and cheaper-to-run services, as well as the risk of falling behind if other firms and economies better adapt to technological change.”
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Report: AI Will Replace 2.4 Million US Jobs by 2030
While AI remains a threat to white-collar workers, the technology is likely to reshape far more jobs than it replaces.
September 8, 2023
If you’re a white-collar worker, now might be a good time to assess your career options — with new research from Forrester predicting that 2.4 million US jobs are expected to be replaced by generative AI by 2030.
Those with salaries over $90,000 stand the greatest chance of having their job replaced altogether, with legal, scientific, and administrative professions being identified as the highest risk.
In a rare win for creatives, the report found that artistic fields are much more likely to incorporate AI into their current roles, while blue-collar professions in construction and transportation may remain virtually untouched. Read on to see what Forrester’s report reveals about the fate of your job:
White Collar Workers: AI is Coming For Your Job
The AI takeover may not be as bad as once feared — unless you’re working a white-collar job — according to a new report by IT research company Forrester.
The company’s 2023 Generative AI Impact Forecast predicts that 2.4 million US jobs will be replaced by 2030, a dwarfed figure in comparison to the 300 million full-time jobs that Goldman Sachs forecasted would be lost to automation in April of this year.
However, those on salaries of $90,000 or more will be bearing the brunt of AI much more than those on lower incomes due to the high automation potential of professional tasks.
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For example, the research found that 78% of legal occupations could become obsolete by 2023, with this potion dropping to 61% for science researchers and 57% for administrative roles.
Percentage of roles likely to be lost to AI by 2023. Source: forrester.com
Forrester’s latest findings don’t come as a major surprise, with mounds of previous research highlighting the impact AI will have on many white-collar workers. Yet, with the research company likening the deep social challenges that may result to those experienced in the postindustrial Rust Belt, the report is still likely to raise alarm bells for many US high-salaried workers.
But fortunately, not all job replacements will come at a loss. The research firm also predicts that the technology will be able to fill many workplace gaps that have existed in frontline industries since the 2020 pandemic.
Creative Industries Are Safe for Now
Forrester’s research also found that generative AI is likely to influence a grand total of 11 million jobs by 2023, making the tech 4.5 more likely to reshape a role than stamp it out altogether.
Generative AI is expected to transform jobs in a number of ways, including by giving workers opportunities to upskill and retrain, as well as simplifying business workflows through automation.
According to the report, creative professionals like poets, writers, and editors are less likely than white-collar workers to have their jobs replaced altogether as their skill sets are harder to replicate. Instead, Forester predicts that the nature of these jobs will evolve as AI tools become further embedded in our daily practices.
How to Get AI Implementation Right
AI is already uprooting the business landscape in major ways, with our own research revealing that 47% of business leaders are currently considering using AI over new hires.
But while failing to embrace AI fast enough is a valid concern, doing so without adequate guardrails could open your business up to numerous risks including poor AI performance, negative employee experiences, and security issues.
While it’s impossible to account for every contingency, to sidestep major pitfalls Forrester outlines the importance of building an informed generative strategy. According to the research firm, here are some major factors businesses should consider:
- Invest in the robot quotient (RQ) – RQ is a measure that evaluates your company’s readiness for robotic process automation. Self-assessing your team under this criteria will help you focus on which areas will benefit the most from AI automation.
- Prioritize augmentation – Enhancing roles with AI tools instead of replacing roles with technology will have a much more beneficial outcome on your business.
- Identify which jobs will benefit from AI the most – AI doesn’t assist all roles evenly. Analyzing which jobs will benefit the most will ensure that experience and precision don’t get lost in your transformation efforts.
- Hire or upskill to fill AI gaps – Most companies currently lack adequate AI know-how, so hiring or upskilling workers with relevant skills like prompt generation will be a solid return on investment.
To learn more about how to get AI implementation right, read our guide on important AI principles, guidelines, and frameworks to consider in 2023.
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