March Madness brackets require a final score in the championship game — here s one of the most likely outcomes
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Total Points Tiebreaker Guess for March Madness Pool
The Tiebreaker
If you stumbled upon this page, you were probably filling out your March Madness Bracket and started wondering what you should guess for the total points scored in the championship game. We’ve compiled the data since the 1950 NCAA Tournament to see what total is most likely to occur.
Past Total Scores
The table at the bottom of this page lists the score from each championship game, and more importantly the Total Points scored in each game. The totals range from 94 points in the 2011 game to 182 in the 1978 game.
Best Tiebreaker Guess
To determine the best guess, we have taken the average total from every championship game since 1950. With this data we have determined the best total to guess is. drumroll please. 144 . Of course, if you have a crystal ball and know which two teams will make it to the big game, and whether they are high or low scoring teams, you can adjust this number accordingly.
| Year | Winner | Runner-Up | Score | Total Points |
| 2022 | Kansas (1) | North Carolina (8) | 72-69 | 141 |
| 2021 | Baylor (1) | Gonzaga (1) | 86-70 | 156 |
| 2019 | Virginia (1) | Texas Tech (3) | 79-62 | 162 |
| 2018 | Villanova (1) | Michigan (1) | 79-62 | 141 |
| 2017 | North Carolina (1) | Gonzaga (1) | 71-65 | 136 |
| 2016 | Villanova (2) | North Carolina (1) | 77-74 | 151 |
| 2015 | Duke (1) | Wisconsin (1) | 68-63 | 131 |
| 2014 | Connecticut (7) | Kentucky (8) | 60-54 | 114 |
| 2013 | Louisville (1) | Michigan (4) | 82-76 | 158 |
| 2012 | Kentucky (1) | Kansas (2) | 67-59 | 126 |
| 2011 | Connecticut (3) | Butler (8) | 53-41 | 94 |
| 2010 | Duke (1) | Butler (5) | 61-59 | 120 |
| 2009 | North Carolina (1) | Michigan State (2) | 89-72 | 161 |
| 2008 | Kansas (1) | Memphis (1) | 75-68 (OT) | 143 |
| 2007 | Florida (1) | Ohio State (1) | 84-75 | 159 |
| 2006 | Florida (3) | UCLA (1) | 73-57 | 130 |
| 2005 | North Carolina (1) | Illinois (1) | 75-70 | 145 |
| 2004 | Connecticut (2) | Georgia Tech (3) | 82-73 | 155 |
| 2003 | Syracuse (3) | Kansas (2) | 81-78 | 159 |
| 2002 | Maryland (1) | Indiana (5) | 64-52 | 116 |
| 2001 | Duke (1) | Arizona (2) | 82-72 | 154 |
| 2000 | Michigan State (1) | Florida (5) | 89-76 | 165 |
| 1999 | Connecticut (1) | Duke (1) | 77-74 | 151 |
| 1998 | Kentucky (2) | Utah (3) | 78-69 | 147 |
| 1997 | Arizona (4) | Kentucky (1) | 84-79 (OT) | 163 |
| 1996 | Kentucky (1) | Syracuse (4) | 76-67 | 143 |
| 1995 | UCLA (1) | Arkansas (2) | 89-78 | 167 |
| 1994 | Arkansas (1) | Duke (2) | 76-72 | 148 |
| 1993 | North Carolina (1) | Michigan (1) | 77-71 | 148 |
| 1992 | Duke (1) | Michigan (6) | 71-51 | 122 |
| 1991 | Duke (2) | Kansas (3) | 72-65 | 137 |
| 1990 | UNLV (1) | Duke (3) | 103-73 | 176 |
| 1989 | Michigan (3) | Seton Hall (3) | 80-79 (OT) | 159 |
| 1988 | Kansas (6) | Oklahoma (1) | 83-79 | 162 |
| 1987 | Indiana (1) | Syracuse (2) | 74-73 | 147 |
| 1986 | Louisville (2) | Duke (1) | 72-69 | 141 |
| 1985 | Villanova (8) | Georgetown (1) | 66-64 | 130 |
| 1984 | Georgetown (1) | Houston (2) | 84-75 | 159 |
| 1983 | NC State (6) | Houston (1) | 54-52 | 106 |
| 1982 | North Carolina (1) | Georgetown (1) | 63-62 | 125 |
| 1981 | Indiana (3) | North Carolina (2) | 63-50 | 113 |
| 1980 | Louisville (2) | UCLA (8) | 59-54 | 113 |
| 1979 | Michigan St. (2) | Indiana St. (1) | 75-64 | 139 |
| 1978 | Kentucky | Duke | 94-88 | 182 |
| 1977 | Marquette | North Carolina | 67-59 | 126 |
| 1976 | Indiana | Michigan | 86-68 | 154 |
| 1975 | UCLA | Kentucky | 92-85 | 177 |
| 1974 | NC State | Marquette | 76-64 | 140 |
| 1973 | UCLA | Memphis | 87-66 | 153 |
| 1972 | UCLA | Florida St. | 81-76 | 157 |
| 1971 | UCLA | Villanova | 68-62 | 130 |
| 1970 | UCLA | Jacksonville | 80-69 | 149 |
| 1969 | UCLA | Purdue | 92-72 | 164 |
| 1968 | UCLA | North Carolina | 78-55 | 133 |
| 1967 | UCLA | Dayton | 79-64 | 143 |
| 1966 | UTEP | Kentucky | 72-65 | 137 |
| 1965 | UCLA | Michigan | 91-80 | 171 |
| 1964 | UCLA | Duke | 98-83 | 181 |
| 1963 | Loyola | Cincinnati | 60-58 (OT) | 118 |
| 1962 | Cincinnati | Ohio St. | 71-59 | 130 |
| 1961 | Cincinnati | Ohio St. | 70-65 (OT) | 135 |
| 1960 | Ohio St. | California | 75-55 | 130 |
| 1959 | California | West Virginia | 71-70 | 141 |
| 1958 | Kentucky | Seattle | 84-72 | 156 |
| 1957 | North Carolina | Kansas | 54-53 (3 OT) | 107 |
| 1956 | San Francisco | Iowa | 83-71 | 154 |
| 1955 | San Francisco | La Salle | 76-73 | 149 |
| 1954 | La Salle | Bradley | 92-76 | 168 |
| 1953 | Indiana | Kansas | 69-68 | 137 |
| 1952 | Kansas | St. John’s | 80-63 | 143 |
| 1951 | Kentucky | Kansas St. | 68-58 | 126 |
| 1950 | CCNY | Bradley | 71-68 | 139 |
March Madness brackets require a final score in the championship game — here’s one of the most likely outcomes
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- March Madness brackets require a score prediction for the championship game of the tournament.
- We determined the average score of the final games over the past 30 years by calculating the average combined scores of the two teams, the average individual score, and the average winning margin.
- The math is imperfect, but we found the average score to be 76-67.
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No one has ever gotten a perfect March Madness bracket.
But all brackets, in the event of a tie, require a score prediction in the final game of the NCAA Tournament as a tiebreaker. Even if two people tie in a pool with imperfect brackets, the final score could decide who wins the pool.
Predicting a score can be tricky, and plenty of people like to go off past examples as a framework.
We tracked the scores of every March Madness final going back to 1990 to find the most common result. We averaged the total combined scores of the two teams, the average individual score, and the average winning margin.
The average total score was 143.6, meaning the average individual score was 71.8 for both of the final teams. The average winning margin was 8.9 points. We rounded all of these numbers up — 144, 72, 9.
Therefore, the average score of the final games over the past 30 years has been approximately 77-68.
It’s not a perfect formula, but 77-89 is a safe bet to make.
It’s also worth noting, however, what went into those numbers.
For instance, averages are affected by outliers. In 1990, UNLV beat Duke 103-73, the largest disparity over the past 29 years. The final game in the NCAA Tournament has been decided by 10 or more points only nine other times.
Could this year be different? With a reduced number of fans and all of the games taking place in Indianapolis, perhaps offense will be up this year? It’s worth noting that in the last decade the final combined scores have exceeded 144 only three times.
How likely is the final-score prediction to factor in a bracket pool? Not very. But every pick matters. Nailing the final score could be the difference-maker for some lucky player’s bracket.
- Read more:
- 6 tips for filling out your March Madness bracket
- We picked March Madness favorites, sleepers, and Cinderellas for every region in the bracket
- Here is who the experts are picking to make the Final Four in March Madness
- The highest-paid coaches in the NCAA Tournament