Map shows extreme heat belt projected to cover a quarter of the US in 30 years, where temperatures would breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit
“Our hope is that this data can inform everyone from the individual, to commercial users to state, local and federal governments, which are all users of our data,” he said.
Millions of people in Midwest to experience ‘extreme heat belt’ by 2053: Report
Extreme temperatures can cause life-threatening problems such as heat strokes.
Colorado Parks and Wildlife ordered an emergency public fish salvage for Queens Reservoir in Kiowa County due to declining water levels related to drought conditions in Eads, Colo., July 21, 2022.
Millions of Americans are at risk of experiencing an “extreme heat belt” that would affect parts of the Midwest over the next three decades, according to a new report from the nonprofit research group First Street Foundation.
By 2053, 1,023 counties, an area home to more than 107 million Americans and covers a quarter of U.S. land, are expected to see the heat index, or the feels-like temperature, surpass 125 degrees Fahrenheit at least one day a year, according to the report, which was released Monday.
According to the First Street Foundation’s study, those high temperatures, considered extremely dangerous by the National Weather Service, are expected to affect 8 million Americans this year and increase 13 times over 30 years.
The “extreme heat belt” extends from Texas’ northern border and Louisiana north through Iowa, Indiana and Illinois, the report shows.
Texas residents asked to ‘immediately’ conserve water amid drought, extreme heat
Other parts of the country are expected to see hotter temperatures, harming people living in areas not used to excessive heat, the report found.
“This reality suggests that a 10% temperature increase in Maine can be as dangerous as a 10% increase in Texas, even as the absolute temperature increase in Texas is much higher,” researchers wrote in the report.
The researchers cited the changing condition in the environment that’s leading to higher temperatures and more humid conditions.
“When everyone thinks of this extreme summer we [are having], this is probably one of the best summers over the next 30 years,” Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of the First Street Foundation, told ABC News. “It’s going to get much worse.”
Extreme temperatures can cause health issues, from fatigue to life-threatening problems such as heat strokes.
Scientists have said that prolonged heat waves result from climate change, particularly in different countries at the same time, as was the case last month in parts of the continental U.S. and Europe.
Jason Smerdon, a climate scientist for the Columbia Climate School’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York, told ABC News last month that extreme heat is a “basic consequence of climate change.”
“While each heat wave itself is different and has individual dynamics behind it, the probability of these events is a direct consequence of the warming planet,” Smerdon said.
The First Street Foundation is a Brooklyn, New York-based nonprofit research and technology group that quantifies climate risks.
ABC News’ Julia Jacobo contributed to this report.
Map shows ‘extreme heat belt’ projected to cover a quarter of the US in 30 years, where temperatures would breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit
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- An “extreme heat belt” may form in the US by 2053, an analysis from First Street Foundation predicts.
- The report used satellite data to model heat risk at the property level for the next 30 years.
- Predictive maps show that 107 million Americans could see temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit.
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Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you’re on the go. download the appThe heat waves scorching the US this summer may just be the beginning of an extreme heat belt forming across the country.
“If people think this was hot — this is going to be one of the better summers of the rest of their lives,” Matthew Eby, CEO of the climate-risk research nonprofit First Street Foundation, told Insider.
The foundation published a “Hazardous Heat” report on Monday, using a peer-reviewed model to assess six years of US government satellite data and predict future risk of extreme heat by property. Its conclusions align with scientists’ warnings that extreme heat will become more common, more extreme, and longer-lasting in the coming decades.
Next year, the report projects that 8 million Americans face the prospect of sweltering in at least 125 degrees Fahrenheit for at least one day. By 2053, that would rise to 107 million Americans — 13 times more people in just 30 years, according to the report.
That’s about one-third of the current population, covering one-quarter of the US land area, as shown in the map below.
The majority of that extreme heat is expected in the center of the country, from the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast up through Chicago — an area that First Street Foundation is calling the “extreme heat belt.” Significant portions of the southwest and southeast are also likely to have more than one day above 125 degrees Fahrenheit in 2053, according to the report.
At such high temperatures, the National Weather Service warns that risk of heat stroke is high. Infrastructure often fails at such high temperatures, too. Roads buckle, train tracks bend and can cause derailing, and airport tarmacs can melt and prevent takeoff. Sometimes the power even goes out.
More hot days and more heat waves
Days that breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit aren’t the only ones to worry about. Even temperatures above 100 degrees can be dangerous. In another map, below, the report projects more days above 100 degrees across the southern half of the country.
The extreme heat of the summer so far in 2020 lines up with many of the locations where First Street Foundation expects the most heat in years to come, Eby said.
For example, as the map below shows, the report projects more heat waves across the country, with significantly increased risk in northern areas including the Pacific Northwest, and other regions that aren’t historically accustomed to extreme heat.
The projections in this report are conservative, since it assumed a future scenario where humans drastically cut the greenhouse-gas emissions that are driving climate change and increasing global temperatures.
If the world doesn’t cut emissions soon — particularly through a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy — the future of extreme heat could look even worse than the maps in this report.
“If anything, our undercuts or our underrepresentation of these heat impacts will be noticed in 30 years,” Eby said.
Even if humans stop emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, some heating is locked in by the gases we’ve already added to the atmosphere. To protect life, infrastructure, and property, Eby said, individuals and companies and governments have to prepare for more extreme heat in the future.
“Our hope is that this data can inform everyone from the individual, to commercial users to state, local and federal governments, which are all users of our data,” he said.
Their data is publicly available on riskfactor.com, where you can check past data, as well as current and future risks for individual properties.
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